Can I calculate whether I will live to see retirement? How to estimate average life expectancy? Demographer Ilya Kashnitsky finally explained everything clearly (with graphs and maps)

To analyze the standard of living in a particular country, it is necessary to pay attention to several factors, one of which is human life expectancy. What is life expectancy in Russia in 2020-2021? Despite the fact that positive dynamics have been observed over the past 10 years, it is impossible to talk about a large LOS in the Russian Federation.

What is average life expectancy (ALE)

This is one of the most important indicators in demographics. With its help, you can analyze the lives of people in certain territories, for example, the average life expectancy can characterize the mortality rate of citizens in a particular territory.

In simpler terms, life expectancy in a state or region can describe how long the average person lives from his birth to his death. In essence, life expectancy is an indicator of the mortality rate of citizens.

The concept of “middle life age” is identical to this concept.

We can also say that this indicator is a statistically justified forecast.

Life expectancy in Russia and in the world

Despite the real results of recent years, in terms of life expectancy, our country noticeably lags behind such developed countries as the USA, Japan, and Germany.

The duration of human life directly depends not only on the level of medicine, but also on lifestyle, as well as many external factors:

• genetics and heredity;
• food quality;
• healthcare;
• working and living conditions;
• ecology and climate in the place of residence;
• level of culture and education;
• established folk customs and habits;
• social policy of the state.

Chronology of changes in life expectancy in the world (video):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBYy_oHSSaU

Historically, life expectancy statistics in Russia have always been worse than those of its “progressive” neighbors. And over time, the situation has not changed much. It is believed that the reason for this is the severity of the climate, losses after wars and political upheavals of the 20th century, as well as the consequences of epidemics. Of no small importance was the tough policy at the turn of the change of system, when unpopular decisions were made that cost the lives of many citizens.

UN data indicates that in 2010 Russia ranked a distant 136th in the world in terms of life expectancy: the average Russian lived only 66.7 years. Of the former Soviet republics, only Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan had a more difficult situation.

By 2021, the country was able to rise in the list by 27 points: the average life expectancy of men and women in Russia has increased, reaching 70.5 years.

Let's turn to the United Nations rating on life expectancy. Below is a ranking of the 15 countries with the highest life expectancy :

№	A country	Average	Men	Women	Position (male)	Position (female)
1	Switzerland	83.1	80.0	86.1	1	2
2	Singapore	83.0	80.0	85.0	10	6
3	Australia	82.8	80.9	84.8	3	7
4	Spain	82.8	80.1	85.5	9	3
5	Iceland	82.7	81.2	84.1	2	10
6	Italy	82.7	80.5	84.8	6	8
7	Israel	82.5	80.6	84.3	5	9
8	France	82.4	79.4	85.4	4	5
9	Sweden	82.4	80.7	84.0	16	12
10	South Korea	82.3	78.8	85.5	20	4
11	Canada	82.2	80.2	84.1	8	11
12	Luxembourg	82.0	79.8	84.0	13	13
13	Netherlands	81.9	80.0	83.6	11	20
14	Norway	81.8	79.8	83.7	14	17
15	Malta	81.7	79.7	83.7	15	18

Life expectancy in the Russian Federation does not reach the leaders by more than 10 years, and our current neighbors in the ranking are residents of the DPRK and Kazakhstan.

№	A country	Average	Men	Women	Position (male)	Position (female)
104	Trinidad and Tobago	71.2	67.9	74.8	107	104
105	Kyrgyzstan	71.1	67.2	75.1	111	102
106	Egypt	70.9	68.8	73.2	100	111
107	Bolivia	70.7	68.2	73.3	103	110
108	DPRK	70.6	67.0	74.0	113	108
109	Russia	70.5	64.7	76.3	127	89
110	Kazakhstan	70.5	65.7	74.7	123	106
111	Belize	70.1	67.5	73.1	110	114
112	Fiji	69.9	67.0	73.1	114	115
113	Butane	69.8	69.5	70.1	97	126
114	Tajikistan	69.7	66.6	73.6	116	109

Many may be surprised how a country with such human and resource potential can occupy such a low position. The most obvious reason is considered to be poverty and uneven distribution of income among the country's residents.

In Russia there are indeed both prosperous and completely undeveloped regions. The standard of living of people in two neighboring regions may differ radically, which casts doubt on the national average and complicates understanding of the real situation.

To clearly confirm the “stratification” by region, here is a rating of the quality of life in Russian cities (click on the picture to enlarge):

Source: Rossiyskaya Gazeta, https://rg.ru/2014/11/27/komfort.html

To this we can add such social phenomena as crime, drug use, alcoholism and suicide, which have a noticeable negative impact on human life expectancy in Russia.

The following phenomena add a fly in the ointment to a not-so-sweet ointment:

• low road safety;
• problems with labor protection;
• low quality of food products;
• imperfection of medical institutions.

And if they were able to find any keys to the birth rate in Russia, then they still have to work hard on the mortality rate.

There are ratings for assessing longevity factors, and the Russian Federation does not occupy the highest positions in them (2017):

Index	Position of the Russian Federation
Prosperity level	101
Standard of living	90
Population happiness level	49
GDP per capita	87
The level of education	40
Income level of the population	55
Social Development Index	67

How is the life expectancy calculated?

There are laws of probability theory, on the basis of which the state calculates the average life expectancy of a woman or man. Russia is no exception.

In order to obtain such an indicator, it is necessary to collect data on the registration of deceased citizens. After this, their total number must be divided by the full years lived. Thus, the indicator is averaged.

It is worth noting that such calculations for men and women are carried out in the same way, but the indicators may differ.

Those intermediate values ​​obtained through arithmetic operations are the basis for other calculations. It turns out that the calculation of such an indicator occurs in a stepwise manner.

In Russia, this technique has been used for more than 10 years. It covers all age groups, ranging in age from 0 to 110 years.

New in blogs

Recently, there have been more and more frequent reports of an upcoming increase in the retirement age. At the same time, there are many voices against this. MP-NL correspondent Petukh Kukushkin decided to look into this issue and imagine to himself and the readers what an interview with Veronika Skvortsova , the Minister of Health, would look like.

Kukushkin. Veronika Igorevna, there are rumors about raising the retirement age. What causes this?

Skvortsova. The thing is that our medical mathematicians calculated the life expectancy of Russians. And they came to the optimistic conclusion that life expectancy in the Putin era is continuously growing. And from the age of 65 under the USSR and Yeltsin, she has already reached 72 years. Isn't this a reason to raise the retirement age?

Kukushkin. Veronika Igorevna, briefly tell us the methodology of how your court mathematicians calculate life expectancy?

Skvortsova. We take data on the ages of all deaths during the year. For example, in Russia in 2021, 1,891,000 people died. Mathematicians add up the ages of all people and divide by the number of people. And at the beginning of 2021, the average age of the deceased is about 72 years.

Kukushkin. What are these 72 years made of? What is the proportion of different population groups and what is their average age?

Skvortsova. The ratio is such that the percentage of infant mortality is approximately the same, both during the Soviet era and during the Putin era. Per 1000 of the deceased population there are 475 men, 475 women, and 50 children. The average age of deceased women is 80 years, and that of men 70 years. Well, plus children, they greatly reduce the average.

Kukushkin. What was the life expectancy of men, women and children during the USSR?

Skvortsova. I’m surprised myself, but it was about the same during the USSR.

Kukushkin. Where does such a significant increase in average life expectancy come from? If the infant mortality rate has not changed, and the life expectancy of men and women has not changed? How is this possible?

Skvortsova. I don’t understand it myself. Probably from Vladimir Vladimirovich’s tireless concern for the people... Look how wonderful our rockets are! We have no roof... that is, Crimea is ours! Sports, Olympics, football, all this increases life expectancy! We destroy imported products! everything is one to one. Mathematicians have calculated everything accurately.

Kukushkin. Just imagine. In the USSR, out of 1000 deaths, there were 400 men, 400 women and 200 children. And in the Putin era, per 1000 deaths there are 475 men, 475 women, and 50 children. Maybe this is the case?

Skvortsova. I don’t understand how this is possible and how it affects anything. Too many children, this is bad! They all crawl, squeal, cry. They prevent you from going on vacation to the Maldives...

Kukushkin. And perhaps this is because 4 times more children were born in the USSR than today. The mortality rate for children is the same. But in terms of the total number of deaths, this is 4 times more. Therefore, for every 1000 people who died under the USSR, there were 200 children, and this greatly reduces the average life expectancy. And the average age of the dead was 65. And in the Putin era, there are 50 children per 1000 deaths, and the average age rises to 72 years. Your increase in life expectancy is fictitious and is due to a decrease in fertility.

Skvortsova. Is that really true? How could I not have guessed it myself? I resign immediately. And I would advise Putin not to lie about the continuous increase in life expectancy as an achievement.

Kukushkin. Veronica Igorevna. But you also missed another point. Life expectancy is a social thing. And there is another concept: biological working age. Grandmothers live until they are 90 years old. But they are not able to work. They do not have the same memory, strength, speed of reaction and thinking. And no matter how you increase their life expectancy, their working capacity ends at 55 years. It's the same with men. Vladimir Vladimirovich is no longer the same, although he boasts. And he is only 65, and Kremlin medicine, and all the imported tonics, massage, hormones...

Skvortsova. I'm just shocked. I was deceived.

Kukushkin. Veronica Igorevna. But someone needs to babysit their grandchildren. After all, we need to reproduce the population? If grandmothers do not nurse their grandchildren, then women will stop giving birth to them. This is an original Russian tradition, for children to have their own grandparents.

Skvortsova. I'm leaving this interview. Damn you all, damned horses. Where is your nearest gilyak here?

Survey. Does it make sense to raise the retirement age, this is the greatest social achievement of the USSR?

1. Do not raise under any circumstances! 2. Putin is leading us on the right path. And the higher the life expectancy, the better it is for the oligarchs. 3. Your answer option.

What is the average life expectancy in the regions of the Russian Federation

The average length of residence in the Russian Federation has risen significantly recently, to 73.6 years in 2021. The analysis of statistical data regarding demographic indicators in Russia is carried out by the Federal State Statistics Service - Rosstat. The regions listed below, presented in the table, have the highest life expectancy in Russia in 2021.

Average life expectancy in the regions of the Russian Federation in 2021

Table: regions of the Russian Federation with the highest life expectancy

Region name	Life expectancy	Population
Ingushetia	80,05	497 393
Moscow	76,77	12 615 882
Dagestan	76,39	3 086 126
Kabardino-Balkaria	74,61	866 219
Karachay-Cherkessia	74,44	466 305
Saint Petersburg	74,42	5 383 968
North Ossetia	74,20	699253
Chechnya	73,45	1 436 981
Stavropol region	73,36	2 795 243
Tatarstan	72.81 years	3 898 628

Rosstat named the most “deadly” age of Russians

The average life expectancy in Russia is about 73 years. However, for men and women, mortality “peaks” occur at different periods: representatives of the fair sex live noticeably longer. According to experts, women's longer life is typical not only for Russia, but also for other countries. However, in our country the situation is aggravated by a number of factors. What kind - NEWS.ru found out.

The most “deadly” period for Russian men is 65–69 years. At this age, 123.7 thousand males died last year. It is followed by 60–64 years (119 thousand). This is stated in Rosstat data, which NEWS.ru reviewed.

At the same time, Russian men often die at the ages of 80–84 years (95.6 thousand), 70–74 years (94 thousand) and 55–59 years (88.5 thousand).

In turn, most women in Russia die at 80–84 years old (185 thousand) and 75–79 years old (105.6 thousand). Somewhat less - in 70–74 years (79 thousand), 65–69 years (77 thousand) and 60–64 years (57.3 thousand).

It is worth noting that according to the Ministry of Health, in 2021 in Russia, average life expectancy reached a historical maximum of 73.4 years. Moreover, women live on average ten years longer than men. The main causes of mortality in Russia remain cardiovascular diseases and oncology.

As Rosstat predicted last year, by 2035 life expectancy will increase to 79.1 years.

The higher life expectancy of women compared to men is due to nature. This trend is observed even among great apes, Yuri Krupnov, chairman of the supervisory board of the Institute of Demography, Migration and Regional Development, told NEWS.ru. However, in Russia the difference between the life expectancy of women and men is ten years, while in developed countries it is about five.

This is largely due to the fact that men are more likely to use drugs, drink alcohol, smoke, experience more stress and behave more frivolously on the roads.

However, the root cause of the gap is that Russian men have a blurred identity: as children they are raised mainly by women, as a result of which boys become accustomed to reduced responsibility. Society remains traditional and rightly places higher demands on men.

Women raise boys. Starting from single mothers and grandmothers to nannies and teachers. The main problem with men's health is that they become feminized, or become feminine, and lose their identity. The expressed masculine principle is eroded and lost, which, on the contrary, must be cultivated: from the point of view of courage, firmness in relationships and habits, readiness to take responsibility for the family and for oneself. On the other hand, the media sets supermen and Rambo as examples, and the pressure from women takes its toll. This discrepancy leads to inappropriate behavior in men and stress.

Yuri Krupnov

Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Institute of Demography, Migration and Regional Development

According to the expert, Russia is also characterized by excess mortality among men at the most “blooming” ages: six times more of them die between the ages of 25 and 45 than in developed European countries.

pixabay.com

The life expectancy of Russian men is especially affected by “anti-men legislation,” believes Vladislav Zakrevsky, a representative of the “Men’s Way” social movement. For example, in divorces, when a man loses most of his property and mental resources invested in the family, he begins to pay alimony, he noted in an interview with NEWS.ru.

Which, unfortunately, are not always spent by the ex-wife for the intended purpose. Moreover, many women not only do not allow fathers to see their children, but also turn children against their fathers, often unfairly demonizing them. Moreover, note that the man will have to leave his ex-wife most of his property accumulated over the years, even if his wife cheated on him, and he himself was forced to file for divorce. As a result of the above, many Russian men experience constant stress, which contributes to the emergence of all sorts of different diseases that shorten their life span.

Vladislav Zakrevsky

representative of the public movement "Men's Way"

He added that men are also destructively influenced by propaganda through one or another media channel: there, a representative of the stronger sex often appears weak, lethargic, lacking initiative, henpecked, spending all his time on the couch. As a result, many male viewers begin to unconsciously copy such behavior patterns.

Life expectancy in the USSR and Russia by year

The average life expectancy in Russia was different in all years.

Interesting Facts

1. At the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, it was 32 years. Although during the same time period, the situation in Europe was not much better. It's all about wars and epidemics. People did not live to see 40 because of typhoid fever, Spanish flu and other diseases.
2. The record life expectancy in Russia was recorded in 2015. The indicator reached 71 (average indicator). This exceeded the life expectancy of the population of the Soviet Union. Life expectancy for women in 2015 became 76.7 years, and for men - 65.6.
3. In 2021, according to Rosstat, it was 72.7 years. In 2018, this figure increased further according to Rosstat to 72.9.
4. In 2021, it has officially increased again and is 73.6 years.

Dynamics of life expectancy in the Russian Federation since the 20th century

At the beginning of the 20th century, Russia became a participant in the world war and revolution. Many people died, but even despite this, the life expectancy of Russians increased every year.

Thanks to the development of medicine, the mortality rate of citizens has decreased significantly. The latest indicators were similar to European ones at that time. Thus, the table above allows us to say that since the 1950s, the life expectancy of Russian people has increased almost 2.5 times. Life expectancy for men in Russia has always been lower.

This has led to improved leisure conditions for the population. There have also been positive changes in the area of ​​work. Working conditions and production have improved.

The economic crisis of the 1990s had a major impact on the fertility rate. Experts say that in addition to the crisis, this situation can be explained by the reforms of perestroika. During this period, infant mortality increased significantly. The reason for this was the collapse of the healthcare system.

Population growth could be recorded after 1997. Experts believe that this became possible due to the population’s adaptation to new living conditions. Interesting fact: during this period, the life expectancy of men compared to the life expectancy of women decreased by 13 years. Only by 2006 did male pensioners begin to appear in the Russian Federation.

After 2015, the situation with demographics changed radically: the standard of living of the population increased significantly, the mortality rate decreased, the healthcare system improved, and the birth rate increased.

In 2021, life expectancy in the Russian Federation reached 73.6 years.

Table: dynamics of life expectancy at birth in Russia

Years	Whole population			Urban population			Rural population
	Total	men	women	Total	men	women	Total	men	women
1896-1897	30,54	29,43	31,69	29,77	27,62	32,24	30,63	29,66	31,66
(across 50 provinces of European Russia)
1926-1927	42,93	40,23	45,61	43,92	40,37	47,50	42,86	40,39	45,30
(for the European part of the RSFSR)
1961-1962	68,75	63,78	72,38	68,69	63,86	72,48	68,62	63,40	72,33
1970-1971	68,93	63,21	73,55	68,51	63,76	73,47	68,13	61,78	73,39
1980-1981	67,61	61,53	73,09	68,09	62,39	73,18	66,02	59,30	72,47
1990	69,19	63,73	74,30	69,55	64,31	74,34	67,97	62,03	73,95
1995	64,52	58,12	71,59	64,70	58,30	71,64	63,99	57,64	71,40
2000	65,34	59,03	72,26	65,69	59,35	72,46	64,34	58,14	71,66
2001	65,23	58,92	72,17	65,57	59,23	72,37	64,25	58,07	71,57
2002	64,95	58,68	71,90	65,40	59,09	72,18	63,68	57,54	71,09
2003	64,84	58,53	71,85	65,36	59,01	72,20	63,34	57,20	70,81
2004	65,31	58,91	72,36	65,87	59,42	72,73	63,77	57,56	71,27
2005	65,37	58,92	72,47	66,10	59,58	72,99	63,45	57,22	71,06
2006	66,69	60,43	73,34	67,43	61,12	73,88	64,74	58,69	71,86
2007	67,61	61,46	74,02	68,37	62,20	74,54	65,59	59,57	72,56
2008	67,99	61,92	74,28	68,77	62,67	74,83	65,93	60,00	72,77
2009	68,78	62,87	74,79	69,57	63,65	75,34	66,67	60,86	73,27
2010	68,94	63,09	74,88	69,69	63,82	75,39	66,92	61,19	73,42
2011	69,83	64,04	75,61	70,51	64,67	76,10	67,99	62,40	74,21
2012	70,24	64,56	75,86	70,83	65,10	76,27	68,61	63,12	74,66
2013	70,76	65,13	76,30	71,33	65,64	76,70	69,18	63,75	75,13
2014	70,93	65,29	76,47	71,44	65,75	76,83	69,49	64,07	75,43
2015	71,39	65,92	76,71	71,91	66,38	77,09	69,90	64,67	75,59
2016	71,87	66,50	77,06	72,35	66,91	77,38	70,50	65,36	76,07
2017	72,70	67,51	77,64	73,16	67,90	77,96	71,38	66,43	76,66
2018	72,91	67,75	77,82	73,34	68,11	78,09	71,67	66,75	76,93
2019	73,7	68.9	78,5	–	–	–	–	–	–

The demographic crisis of the 1990s and the subsequent increase in the indicator

In the early 1990s, Russia was experiencing a demographic crisis: in 1994, the lowest average life expectancy since the 1950s was recorded - 63.98 years. Moreover, this figure for men fell to 58.1 years, that is, below the retirement age of 60 years in force at that time. For women, it decreased slightly - to 71.5 years.

The average life expectancy in Russia remained at the level of 64-65 years until 2005 (then this figure was 65.37 years), then it began to grow. In 2006, life expectancy for men exceeded retirement age for the first time since the 1990s and reached 60.4 years. In 2012, life expectancy for both sexes broke the Soviet-era record and amounted to 70.24 years; in 2014 it increased to 70.93 years (including the Crimean Federal District).

At the end of 2015, the level of 71 years was exceeded for the first time, in 2017 - 72 years.

According to Rosstat for 2021, the average life expectancy of Russians at birth updated the record and amounted to 72.91 years (for women - 77.82 years, for men - 67.75 years).

SPJ in cities and villages

In small towns in Russia, the level of medical care remains low. Moreover, in some of them there is no medical care at all. This leads to high mortality rates in some villages and towns.

But thanks to the so-called “successful regions of the country,” the life expectancy in the Russian Federation is increasing. Demographic problems also exist in areas where funding is insufficient. As practice shows, the budget in such regions is not balanced.

What affects women's life expectancy

Researchers at the German Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research came to the conclusion that only the heredity factor influences the lifespan of centenarians. Genetics are important, such as susceptibility to disease. Medical scientists say that lifespan depends on physical activity and the ratio of height and weight. Increased emotionality makes women more susceptible to stress, which reduces their life expectancy.

Main factors:

1. Poor nutrition . Long-livers eat in moderation. Overeating, fatty foods, and addiction to sweets wear out the digestive organs and shorten life.
2. Physical inactivity . Lack of exercise contributes to obesity, cardiovascular disease and other deadly diseases.
3. Bad habits . Tobacco, alcohol, and drugs shorten life.
4. Hard physical labor . Violation of working conditions - increased dustiness, too high or low temperatures, chemicals, radiation reduce the body's defenses.

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Region of residence

Life expectancy depends on where you live. Among all regions of Russia, women in Ingushetia live longer – 83.05 years. Second place is occupied by Moscow and the region – 80.02 years. In the Republic of Dagestan this figure is 79.47 years. The monasteries of mountain regions with clean ecology live longer.

Locality of residence

The low level of medicine in small Russian villages shortens the life expectancy of local residents. Maternal mortality in villages is twice as high as in city women. Rural women often stay at home to give birth. Homemade abortions are also twice as high as in cities. They often lead to death, which affects the life expectancy of women in Russia.

Socio-economic situation

Over the past 50 years, the life expectancy of Russian women has increased. In the 50s of the last century in the USSR it was only 69 years. This is the result of an increase in the well-being of the population: the quality of medical and social services and working conditions have improved.

Social assistance to those in need has increased. Women have more time for sports and recreation. All this has led to people taking up the prevention of aging. They turn to cosmetologists, massage therapists, nutritionists, and monitor their health more carefully.

Average age of the population in the Russian Federation and other countries of the world: comparative analysis

In 2021, the Russian Federation took 110th place in the ranking of average life expectancy in the countries of the world. Experts believe that life expectancy in the Russian Federation has remained low for several decades. In developed countries such as Japan, France or Singapore, this figure exceeds 80 years.

The conclusion is obvious: Russia lags behind developed countries in this indicator, while in the 1960s the average age of European countries and Russia were approximately equal.

Average life expectancy in different countries of the world

Table: states where the value of the LOS differs slightly from the indicator in Russia

Dominican Republic	74
Salvador	74
Georgia	74
Grenada	74
Guatemala	74
Honduras	74
Palestine	74
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	74
Seychelles	74
Bangladesh	73
Belarus	73
Cape Verde	73
Paraguay	73
Syria	73
Tonga	73
Vanuatu	73

How long do people live in the CIS countries?

According to statistics from the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the average life expectancy index (Life Expectancy Index) in the CIS countries and former Soviet republics in 2021 was:

• Azerbaijan – 73.1 years.
• Kazakhstan – 71.1 years.
• Ukraine – 72.5.
• Turkmenistan – 68.2 years.
• Kyrgyzstan – 71.4 years.
• Belarus – 74.2.
• Armenia – 74.8 years.
• Georgia – 72.6 years.

Current indicators

Today, there are statistical data compiled by the Federal State Statistics Service, which reflect the life expectancy of people in the country, taking into account the regional factor.

By city and region

Taking into account the regions of the Russian Federation, the following statistical figures are available:

• In the Central Federal District, the average is 72 years.
• In the Northwestern Federal District, this number was also 71 years.
• In the Southern Federal District - 70 years.
• The highest rate of 74 years was observed in the North Caucasus.
• In Privolzhsky there was a number of 70 years.
• In Uralsk, on average, men and women lived about 70 years.
• In Siberian, this figure is a little over 68 years.
• In the Far East there are only 67.

Data for 2018
As can be seen from the statistics, in the north life expectancy shows lower rates. Whereas the Caucasian Republics are at the top of the country's rankings in terms of life expectancy. This is primarily due to a healthier lifestyle and less harsh climatic conditions.

On years

Over the past 100 years, the dynamics of average life expectancy, regardless of gender, is as follows:

• From 1926 to 1930, real life expectancy was only 43 years.
• From 1961 to 1980 – 68 years.
• From 1980 to 1990 it fluctuated between 67 and 69 years.
• In 1995 it was only 64 years and 5 months.
• In 2000 and 2001, this figure increased by 1 year and amounted to 65 years.
• Further, from 2002 to 2006 it increased from 64 to 66.6.
• By 2008 he was already 68 years old.
• In 2010 – 68.9.
• In 2014, life expectancy for both sexes was 70.9 years.
• In 2015 and 2021 fluctuated around 71.6.
• In 2021 it was 72.9 years.

As can be seen from these statistics, the average life expectancy in Russia has increased. This is primarily due to such basic reasons and factors as:

• Raising the level of medicine not only in Russia, but also in the world.
• Reducing child mortality.
• More comfortable living conditions and provision of gentle working conditions.

But, despite the seemingly positive statistics, it is still worth noting that the average life expectancy of men and women in Russia is significantly lower compared to other countries in the world. Thus, in developed countries, such as Japan, the USA, Canada, and a number of European countries, life expectancy exceeds 80 years, which is approximately 10 years more than in the Russian Federation.

By gender

It is also worth noting that the life expectancy of women is almost 10 years higher in comparison with the male part of the population. But this trend is observed everywhere. True, if in 2017 women in Russia live longer than men by almost a decade, then in developed countries this gap is no more than 2–3 years. Although, during the Soviet Union, the gap was also just as significant, with the exception of the 20s.

Such a sharp gap in statistical data can only be explained by some national characteristics:

• Insufficient attention to their own health on the part of the male population.
• Abuse of bad habits, which include drinking alcohol and smoking. Moreover, there is insufficient influence from the state on the promotion of a healthy lifestyle.
• Insufficient quality of medical care for elderly people.

Why is the life expectancy rate of citizens low in the Russian Federation?

First of all, this indicator depends on the mortality rate. And in the Russian Federation this coefficient has remained quite high for many years. This phenomenon is not typical for Western European countries.

Western Europe Map

The following factors have a huge impact on this situation:

1. Level of economic development of the country. According to this parameter, Russia ranks 43rd in the world.
2. The level of education. According to this parameter, Russia ranks 40th in the world.
3. Income level of the population. According to this parameter, Russia ranks 55th in the world.
4. Social index development. According to this parameter, Russia ranks 65th in the world.

Most experts believe that such an indicator as average life expectancy primarily depends on the level of medical care in the country. The health of citizens depends not only on the economy, but also on the healthcare system.

In some regions of the Russian Federation, medicine is not only at a low level of development, it may be completely absent. This is a big problem for Russia, relevant in our time.

Elderly Russians often remember Soviet times with nostalgia. They recall price levels, housing affordability and collective consciousness. Many people note this period as stable. As for the current period of the country’s development, it cannot be called stable due to political and economic reasons.

COVID-19 took two years of life from Russians

The government has revised the expected demographic indicators for the coming period

Amid the pandemic, life expectancy in Russia has decreased for the first time since 2003, according to the March version of the government plan to achieve national goals. In 2030 the figure should be 78 years

Photo: Valery Sharifulin / TASS

According to preliminary estimates, life expectancy in Russia at the end of 2021 decreased to 71.1 years against 73.3 years in 2019, follows from the March version of the draft unified government plan for achieving national development goals for the period until 2024 and the planning period until 2030, which RBC reviewed. The document was published by the Telegram channel “May Decree”; the RBC indicators given in the document were confirmed by two sources close to the government.

Amid the pandemic, life expectancy in the country decreased in annual terms for the first time since 2003, according to Rosstat data. Russia will be able to return to the level of 2021 in three years - in 2024, as follows from the March version of the government plan.

This year the figure will be 71.7 years, in 2022 - 72.3 years, in 2023 - 72.9 years, in 2024 - 73.6 years.

Six months ago, the authorities expected to increase the life expectancy of Russians in 2024 to 75.2 years.

Life expectancy for a certain year is a model indicator that depends on the mortality rate in the country, accumulating the mortality rates of all age groups, explained experts from the Higher School of Economics in a 2021 report. Its decrease in 2021 is due to excess mortality in Russia, which amounted to 323.8 thousand people compared to 2021.

In March 2021, Rosstat published a demographic forecast until 2035, which did not yet take into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the baseline scenario, life expectancy at birth was expected to increase to almost 73.9 years in 2021.

A decrease in life expectancy due to coronavirus is also occurring in other countries. Thus, in the United States, the rate in the first half of 2021 decreased by one year (from 78.8 to 77.8 years) - this is the largest decline since 1943, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported in February.

“The spread of the new coronavirus infection has objectively diverted the Russian Federation from the development trajectory aimed at achieving national goals set in 2021,” says the government’s draft unified plan. But the implementation of the measures outlined in the document is intended to ensure a return to economic growth and growth in household incomes, as well as the achievement of national development goals. Specifically, life expectancy in Russia should be 78 years in 2030, as required by a decree signed by President Vladimir Putin in July 2020.

Russia will continue to lose population over the next five years, according to the government’s draft plan. This indicator is influenced by both natural population decline and migration processes. According to preliminary estimates, in 2021 the population decline will be 583.4 thousand people, compared to 99.7 thousand in 2019 and 32.1 thousand in 2018.

The estimate in the draft government plan is more pessimistic than Rosstat’s preliminary estimate for 2021, published at the end of January. According to the department, over the year the permanent population of Russia decreased by 510 thousand people - from 146.75 million to 146.24 million. The reduction in the country's population in the pandemic year 2021 set a record for 15 years: in 2005, the population decline was 564.5 thousand people.

In 2021, according to the draft government plan, the population decline will continue and amount to 522.1 thousand people, in 2022 - 451.5 thousand, in 2023 - 344.6 thousand, in 2024 - 270, 6 thousand people. In total, the country’s population, according to the document, will decrease by more than 2.2 million people in 2020–2024. The previous forecast was about a population reduction of 1.2 million people.

Deputy Director of the Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Alexander Shirov, considers the new forecast for 2020–2021 to be overly pessimistic. On the other hand, he believes that population decline rates in 2022–2025 will become significantly better. “This will largely be associated with a decrease in mortality potential, since some of the citizens who could have died during this period died during the pandemic,” Shirov added.

In 2030, the government expects to achieve a population growth of 54.7 thousand people. According to the July presidential decree, by 2030 Russia should ensure sustainable population growth, taking into account the effect of migration.

RBC sent inquiries to the government press service and to the representative of Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova, who oversees demography. The press service of Rosstat did not comment on demographic figures from the project.

In accordance with the target forecast of Rosstat, after 2030 we can expect an increase in the population of Russia, the press service of the Ministry of Labor told RBC. The key focus of the government’s activities in the post-Covid period has been measures to improve the health of Russians and improve the demographic situation. In 2021, it was possible to achieve a significant reduction in the infant mortality rate, the department emphasized. As the Ministry of Health clarified, the infant mortality rate in Russia decreased in 2021 to 4.52 per 1 thousand births against 4.92 in 2021. This level was planned to be achieved only by 2024, but it has been achieved now, the ministry indicated.

Are there any prospects for the dynamics of growth of life expectancy in Russia?

The demographic situation in the country depends on many factors, the main ones being the political and economic situation. Can we expect that there will be any changes in demographics in Russia in the near future?

Rosstat predicts an increase in life expectancy in the Russian Federation to 73 years by 2030.

Analysis of the reasons that affect life expectancy.

In 2010, UN specialists conducted their own investigation. According to their analysis, by 2035 the life expectancy indicator in the Russian Federation will be 73. With the beginning of the new century, the situation will change again, the average age will be 81 years. UN experts also believe that by this time the gap between male and female life expectancy should narrow. For men, this figure will still be lower, but from 13 it will drop to 6.

However, according to experts, such changes will not have any impact on the high mortality rate in infancy and childhood.

Dmitry Medvedev once said that life expectancy by 2015, compared with the period of the USSR, had become a historical minimum. In his opinion, by 2021 in Russia the life expectancy will be 74 years. What is the reason for this? Dmitry Medvedev predicted:

1. Reducing the infant mortality rate.
2. General improvement in the quality of the healthcare system.
3. Reduced consumption of alcoholic beverages by Russians.

Such a comforting prognosis depends on these factors. However, T. Golikova thinks differently. In her opinion, such an indicator as life expectancy cannot be called sustainable. What is the reason? The point is a large gap in the duration and quality of life in large and small settlements.

In Russia there are prosperous and absolutely undeveloped regions. The standard of living of people in one region may be radically different from the standard of living in another. It is for this reason that it is difficult to average the lives of people throughout the Russian Federation and derive any coefficients.

T. Golikova also argues that if measures are not taken in a timely manner, the situation will worsen as the mortality rate in many regions will increase.

Thus, the dynamics of growth of SRL is interconnected with economic and political factors in the state.

Diagram of quality of life ranking in Russian cities

Data on life expectancy for men in Russia

Statistical information about demographic values ​​differs from the real situation. Average figures do not show exactly how long men live by region of Russia. These data vary greatly and depend on the level of welfare of the region or region.

Statistical

Today, the average age of life for men in Russia is 67 years. The highest level of life expectancy was in 2021 – 72.7. For representatives of the stronger sex, this figure stopped at 67.5. Life expectancy for 2021 is 68.76. In terms of life expectancy and life expectancy, Russians lag behind Western countries - 110th place. The ranking is led by Japan, Singapore, and France – 80–82 years.

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Actual

The life expectancy indicator cannot be called stable. Its increase is due to low mortality rates among infants, not adult men. Another discrepancy is the degree of well-being of the people. For example, there is a huge difference in conditions between the standard of living in Moscow and a village where there are no normal hospitals, schools and other infrastructure. For this reason, it is incorrect to average indicators and calculate the overall coefficient for the country.

Another fact is the life expectancy of the male population by region. In Moscow and Ingushetia it is 72–75 years, while in the Amur, Pskov, and Novgorod regions it is 60–61, and among Jews and Chukchi it is 58. The mortality rate has practically not decreased over the past 5 years. This reduces the value of the life expectancy.

Does corruption affect the SWP?

Some experts have discovered a close connection between the phenomenon of corruption and SOL. How can this relationship be explained? Life expectancy directly depends on the health of the population, and health, in turn, depends on the consciousness of people. Corruption leaves a negative imprint on the mass consciousness.

There is a rule: corruption will be present in a political system in which the level of public trust in the authorities is low. Russia ranks 133rd in the international corruption study out of 174 positions.

How corruption works in Russia, watch the video.

It turns out that we won’t have to wait for a very long time for the “recovery” of Russian society. Therefore, one should not hope for an increase in the quality of life of Russians and the PoE.

However, in the late 2000s the situation improved slightly. By this time, men began to live to retirement age. The life expectancy of men was 63 years, and that of women was 75 years. However, these figures are lower than in 1965.

Regions of the Russian Federation – leaders and outsiders

As you might have guessed, life expectancy varies markedly across Russian regions. The country is large and the living conditions of people in different localities can be diametrically opposed. No offense intended, but compare the fragrant Baikal with the industrial city of Monchegorsk in the Murmansk region. Conditions for income and quality of social services also differ. They live the longest in the Caucasus (Ingushetia ranks first), with high rates in Moscow and the Northern capital, St. Petersburg. The worst indicators were recorded in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug and the Republic of Tyva.

Below is a detailed table for the subjects of the Federation (click on the picture to enlarge)*:

№	Region of Russia	Average	Husband.	Women
1	Rep. Ingushetia	78.84	75.97	81.32
2	Moscow city	76.37	72.31	80.17
3	Rep. Dagestan	75.63	72.31	78.82
4	city ​​of St. Petersburg	74.22	69.43	78.38
5	Rep. North Ossetia Alania	73.94	68.46	79.06
6	Karachay-Cherkess Republic	73.94	69.21	78.33
7	Kabardino-Balkarian Republic	73.71	69.03	78.08
8	Chechen Republic	73.20	70.23	76.01
9	Stavropol region	72.75	67.91	77.27
10	Krasnodar region	72.29	67.16	77.27
11	Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Region district – Ugra	72.23	67.27	77.08
12	Belgorod region	72.16	66.86	77.32
13	Rep. Tatarstan	72.12	66.35	77.73
14	Rep. Adygea	71.80	66.55	76.97
15	Penza region	71.54	65.47	77.52
16	Volgograd region	71.42	66.11	76.57
17	Rostov region	71.39	66.34	76.28
18	Tyumen region	71.35	65.97	76.72
19	Rep. Kalmykia	71.35	65.65	77.25
20	Astrakhan region	71.34	65.91	76.72
21	Yamalo-Nenets Aut. district	71.23	66.53	75.88
22	Tambov region	70.93	64.87	77.15
23	Voronezh region	70.89	64.81	77.03
24	Chuvash Republic	70.79	64.59	77.19
25	Moscow region	70.78	65.10	76.30
26	Ryazan region	70.74	64.77	76.61
27	Saratov region	70.67	65.01	76.19
28	Lipetsk region	70.66	64.56	76.77
29	Rep. Mordovia	70.56	64.79	76.39
30	Kaliningrad region	70.51	65.10	75.68
31	Ulyanovsk region	70.50	64.64	76.30
32	Murmansk region	70.46	65.15	75.26
33	Yaroslavl region	70.45	64.25	76.37
34	Leningrad region.	70.36	64.73	76.05
35	Tomsk region	70.33	64.78	75.90
36	Kirov region	70.26	64.31	76.29
37	Oryol region	70.22	64.36	75.92
38	Novosibirsk region	70.19	64.29	76.13
39	Arkhangelsk region	70.16	64.11	76.27
40	Kursk region	70.14	64.27	76,00
41	Kaluga region	70.02	64.43	75.51
42	Udmurt Republic	69.92	63.52	76.33
43	Kostroma region	69.86	64.31	75.29
44	Ivanovo region	69.84	63.90	75.42
45	Sverdlovsk region.	69.81	63.64	75.86
46	Altai region	69.77	64.11	75.44
47	Bryansk region	69.75	63.32	76.32
48	Omsk region	69.74	63.86	75.57
49	Rep. Bashkortostan	69.63	63.66	75.84
50	Chelyabinsk region	69.52	63.48	75.46
51	Nizhny Novgorod region.	69.42	63.06	75.75
52	Tula region	69.41	63.22	75.57
53	Samara region	69.40	63.28	75.50
54	Vologda region	69.35	63.21	75.63
55	Rep. Mari El	69.30	62.82	76.13
56	Rep. Komi	69.27	63.22	75.39
57	Rep. Karelia	69.19	63.17	75.05
58	Vladimir region	69.13	62.78	75.44
59	Rep. Sakha (Yakutia)	69.13	63.54	75.00
60	Krasnoyarsk region	69.06	63.35	74.77
61	Orenburg region	68.90	63.10	74.82
62	Smolensk region	68.90	62.93	74.97
63	Perm region	68.75	62.61	74.89
64	Rep. Khakassia	68.57	62.95	74.14
65	Kurgan region	68.27	61.93	74.97
66	Primorsky Krai	68.19	62.77	73.92
67	Tver region	68.13	62.28	74.03
68	Kamchatka Krai	67.98	62.59	74.07
69	Khabarovsk region	67.92	62.13	73.96
70	Pskov region	67.82	61.81	74.05
71	Kemerovo region.	67.72	61.50	74.04
72	Sakhalin region	67.70	62.17	73.53
73	Novgorod region	67.67	60.89	74.75
74	Rep. Buryatia	67.67	62.32	73.06
75	Rep. Altai	67.34	61.48	73.44
76	Magadan region	67.12	61.84	72.77
77	Transbaikal region	67.11	61.47	73.10
78	Irkutsk region	66.72	60.32	73.28
79	Amur region	66.38	60.59	72.59
80	Nenets Aut. district	65.76	60.22	75.21
81	Jewish Autonomous Region	64.94	58.84	71.66
82	Chukotka Autonomous Republic district	62.11	58.65	66.42
83	Rep. Tyva	61.79	56.37	67.51

* the table does not take into account the city of Sevastopol and the Republic of Crimea, which became part of the Russian Federation in 2014.

You can find out in which regions of the Russian Federation people live the least (Top 10) from the following video:

Impact of population education on life expectancy

There is scientific data confirming the fact that the average age in a country depends on the level of education of the population. This can be confirmed by statistics from the 90s.

1. The increase in mortality among men with a low level of education was 57%, and among men with a high level of education – 35%.
2. The increase in mortality among women with a low level of education was 30%, and among women with a high level of education – 8%.

By the 2000s, the quality of education had deteriorated significantly, and this, in turn, led to a decrease in the life expectancy of Russians.

Data on the life expectancy of women in Russia

In 2021, the life expectancy of Russian residents of both sexes reached its historical maximum – 72.9 years. Russian women live 10 years longer than men due to genetic, psychological and a number of other reasons. Statistical life expectancy differs from actual life expectancy.

One of the reasons is child mortality data. For example, the average lifespan of the Ancient Mediterranean was 30-40 years, which does not mean that people died at that age. The indicator was affected by high infant mortality.

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Statistical

It is necessary to know the average life expectancy of a certain region in order to calculate the expected lifespan. Predictions are not always correct, but scientists are constantly working to answer the question - how to increase the age of people?

Affect:

• epidemics;
• military conflicts;
• low level of medicine;
• industrial pollution of water and air.

Actual

The average life age of women in Russia is 76.71 years, and for men – 65.92. This is the actual figure for 2021, which is constantly increasing. Scientists say there is reason to expect further growth.

Average life expectancy in CIS countries

According to the latest UN reports on world demographic statistics, life expectancy of the world's population is steadily increasing. Thus, in just the last 59 years, this figure has increased by 15 years and reached 64 years for men and 68 for women. However, as for the post-Soviet space, the situation here is completely disappointing.

Residents of Armenia live the longest among the former Soviet republics. Here, the life expectancy of the male part of the population reaches 68.5 years, and the female part 75. In second place is Georgia, where the population lives only 1.5 years less.

Average life expectancy in Ukraine is approximately equal to Russian indicators and is 60.5 and 72.5 years. The worst situation is in Kazakhstan and Armenia. But the average life expectancy in Belarus is 63 years for men and 74.4 years for women.

Thus, none of the countries that were previously part of the Soviet Union managed to achieve the average life expectancy characteristic of modern developed countries.